Chile: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Jul 2014 · International Monetary Fund
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KEY ISSUES
Politics: President Bachelet won the Presidential election on a platform to foster
inclusive growth and reduce inequality. Her government took office in March 2014 and is launching
an ambitious policy agenda that includes important reforms in several areas, including taxation,
education, productivity, and energy.
Outlook and risks: Chile’s global environment is shifting, with a dimmer outlook for its main
export, copper, and normalization of global monetary conditions. Growth has slowed markedly,
resulting in a modest output gap. The peso has depreciated, feeding into inflation. Staff projects
growth to bottom out in 2014 and then gradually recover. Key risks relate to a large and lasting
drop in copper prices and global financial volatility.
Policy mix: The freely floating peso is working as a shock absorber and will support the economic
recovery. The policy mix with broadly neutral fiscal and accommodative monetary policy is
appropriate. Room for further monetary easing has narrowed but space remains if domestic demand
flounders, so long as inflation expectations remain well anchored. On fiscal, given the strong
public finances, automatic stabilizers should be allowed to operate unimpeded and there is space
for stimuli in the event of a major downturn. The commitment to close the structural fiscal deficit
by 2018 is appropriate and should be phased in a way that avoids undue drag on the recovery. Should
risks materialize, the freely floating currency is the first line of defense.
Growth and equity reforms: Achieving strong growth while reducing inequality will require
structural reforms. The authorities’ agenda focuses on the right areas but many details remain work
in progress. Clarity on the details, timetables, and prioritization will reduce uncertainty and the
risk of delays.
Financial stability: Risks to financial stability appear contained, but it will be important to
push through with regulatory reforms underway, including initiatives currently in Congress. Further
effort will be needed to close regulatory gaps, in particular bank
capital requirements, relative to international benchmarks.
Politics: President Bachelet won the Presidential election on a platform to foster
inclusive growth and reduce inequality. Her government took office in March 2014 and is launching
an ambitious policy agenda that includes important reforms in several areas, including taxation,
education, productivity, and energy.
Outlook and risks: Chile’s global environment is shifting, with a dimmer outlook for its main
export, copper, and normalization of global monetary conditions. Growth has slowed markedly,
resulting in a modest output gap. The peso has depreciated, feeding into inflation. Staff projects
growth to bottom out in 2014 and then gradually recover. Key risks relate to a large and lasting
drop in copper prices and global financial volatility.
Policy mix: The freely floating peso is working as a shock absorber and will support the economic
recovery. The policy mix with broadly neutral fiscal and accommodative monetary policy is
appropriate. Room for further monetary easing has narrowed but space remains if domestic demand
flounders, so long as inflation expectations remain well anchored. On fiscal, given the strong
public finances, automatic stabilizers should be allowed to operate unimpeded and there is space
for stimuli in the event of a major downturn. The commitment to close the structural fiscal deficit
by 2018 is appropriate and should be phased in a way that avoids undue drag on the recovery. Should
risks materialize, the freely floating currency is the first line of defense.
Growth and equity reforms: Achieving strong growth while reducing inequality will require
structural reforms. The authorities’ agenda focuses on the right areas but many details remain work
in progress. Clarity on the details, timetables, and prioritization will reduce uncertainty and the
risk of delays.
Financial stability: Risks to financial stability appear contained, but it will be important to
push through with regulatory reforms underway, including initiatives currently in Congress. Further
effort will be needed to close regulatory gaps, in particular bank
capital requirements, relative to international benchmarks.
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