Statistical Inference and Prediction in Climatology: A Bayesian Approach
E. S. Epstein
Jun 2016 · Meteorological Monographs Ibhuku elingu-20 · Springer
I-Ebook
203
Amakhasi
reportIzilinganiso nezibuyekezo aziqinisekisiwe Funda Kabanzi
Mayelana nale ebook
The climatologist (like the hydrologist, the economist, the social scientist, and others) is frequently faces with situations in which a prediction must be made of the outcome of a process that is inherently probabilistic, and this inherent uncertainty is compounded by the expert's limited knowledge of the process itself. An example might be predicting next summer's mean temperature at a previously unmonitored location. This monograph deals with the balanced use of expert judgment and limited data in such situations. How does the expert quantify his or her judgment? When data are plentiful they can tell a complete story, but how does one alter prior judgment in the light of a few observations, and integrate that information into a consistent and knowledgeable prediction? Bayes theorem provides a straightforward rule for modifying a previously held belief in the light of new data. Bayesian methods are valuable and practical. This monograph is intended to introduce some concepts of statistical inference and prediction that are not generally treated in the traditional college course in statistics, and have not seen their way into the technical literature generally available to the practising climatologist. Even today, where Bayesian methods are presented the practical aspects of their application are seldom emphasized. Using examples drawn from climatology and meteorology covering probabilistic processes ranging from Bernoulli to normal to autoregression, methods for quantifying beliefs as concise probability statements are described, and the implications of new data on beliefs and of beliefs on predictions are developed.istical inference and prediction that are not generally treated in the traditional college course in statistics, and have not seen their way into the technical literature generally available to the practising climatologist. Even today, where Bayesian methods are presented the practical aspects of their application are seldom emphasized. Using examples drawn from climatology and meteorology covering probabilistic processes ranging from Bernoulli to normal to autoregression, methods for quantifying beliefs as concise probability statements are described, and the implications of new data on beliefs and of beliefs on predictions are developed.
Nikeza le ebook isilinganiso
Sitshele ukuthi ucabangani.
Ulwazi lokufunda
Amasmathifoni namathebulethi
Faka uhlelo lokusebenza lwe-Google Play Amabhuku lwe-Android ne-iPad/iPhone. Livunyelaniswa ngokuzenzakalela ne-akhawunti yakho liphinde likuvumele ukuthi ufunde uxhunywe ku-inthanethi noma ungaxhunyiwe noma ngabe ukuphi.
Amakhompyutha aphathekayo namakhompyutha
Ungalalela ama-audiobook athengwe ku-Google Play usebenzisa isiphequluli sewebhu sekhompuyutha yakho.
Ama-eReaders namanye amadivayisi
Ukuze ufunde kumadivayisi e-e-ink afana ne-Kobo eReaders, uzodinga ukudawuniloda ifayela futhi ulidlulisele kudivayisi yakho. Landela imiyalelo Yesikhungo Sosizo eningiliziwe ukuze udlulise amafayela kuma-eReader asekelwayo.
