International Capital Flow Pressures
ΡΠ΅Π²Ρ. 2018β―Π³. Β· International Monetary Fund
ΠΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³Π°
58
ΠΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ ΡΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ
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ΠΠ± ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³Π΅
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast Exchange Market Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes the Global Risk Response Index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion. For a large sample of countries over time, we demonstrate time variation in the effects of global risk on exchange market pressures, the evolving importance of the global factor across types of countries, and the changing risk-on or risk-off status of currencies.
ΠΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΠ΅ ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³Ρ
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Π§ΡΠΎΠ±Ρ ΠΎΡΠΊΡΡΡΡ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³Ρ Π½Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΎΠΌ ΡΡΡΡΠΎΠΉΡΡΠ²Π΅ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ, ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ Kobo, ΡΠΊΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΉΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΠΉΠ» ΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΠ±Π°Π²ΡΡΠ΅ Π΅Π³ΠΎ Π½Π° ΡΡΡΡΠΎΠΉΡΡΠ²ΠΎ. ΠΠΎΠ΄ΡΠΎΠ±Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ Π½Π°ΠΉΡΠΈ Π² Π‘ΠΏΡΠ°Π²ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ΅.
