Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis
Jul. 2010 · Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research Boek 30 · Springer Science & Business Media
E-boek
190
Bladsye
reportGraderings en resensies word nie geverifieer nie. Kom meer te wete
Meer oor hierdie e-boek
Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions.
The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected.
This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.
Gradeer hierdie e-boek
Sê vir ons wat jy dink.
Lees inligting
Slimfone en tablette
Installeer die Google Play Boeke-app vir Android en iPad/iPhone. Dit sinkroniseer outomaties met jou rekening en maak dit vir jou moontlik om aanlyn of vanlyn te lees waar jy ook al is.
Skootrekenaars en rekenaars
Jy kan jou rekenaar se webblaaier gebruik om na oudioboeke wat jy op Google Play gekoop het, te luister.
E-lesers en ander toestelle
Om op e-inktoestelle soos Kobo-e-lesers te lees, moet jy ’n lêer aflaai en dit na jou toestel toe oordra. Volg die gedetailleerde hulpsentrumaanwysings om die lêers na ondersteunde e-lesers toe oor te dra.
