Fiscal Multipliers in Ukraine
mar. 2015 · International Monetary Fund
E-bog
17
Sider
reportBedømmelser og anmeldelser verificeres ikke Få flere oplysninger
Om denne e-bog
Amid renewed crisis, falling tax revenues, and rising debt, Ukraine faces serious fiscal consolidation needs. Durable fiscal adjustment can support economic confidence and rebuild buffers but what is its overall impact on growth? How effective are revenue versus spending instruments? Does current or capital spending have a larger impact? Applying a structural vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that Ukraine’s near-term revenue and spending multipliers are well below one. In the medium-term, the revenue multiplier becomes insignificant (with a wide confidence interval) and the spending multiplier strengthens. Capital and current spending have a similar effect on growth but the capital multiplier remains significant for longer. These results suggest near-term consolidation based on a combination of revenue and spending measures would have a modest impact on growth. At the same time, medium-term policies could minimize the adverse consequences of consolidation on growth by offsetting some current spending cuts with increased capital spending. Given the severe challenges facing the Ukrainian economy, it is important that policymakers apply these results in conjunction with broader considerations such as public debt sustainability, investor confidence, credibility of government policies, and public spending efficiency. Consequently, it may be necessary to rely more on current spending cuts over other types of consolidation measures even though multiplier estimates suggest a more diverse combination of measures.
Bedøm denne e-bog
Fortæl os, hvad du mener.
Oplysninger om læsning
Smartphones og tablets
Installer appen Google Play Bøger til Android og iPad/iPhone. Den synkroniserer automatisk med din konto og giver dig mulighed for at læse online eller offline, uanset hvor du er.
Bærbare og stationære computere
Du kan høre lydbøger, du har købt i Google Play via browseren på din computer.
e-læsere og andre enheder
Hvis du vil læse på e-ink-enheder som f.eks. Kobo-e-læsere, skal du downloade en fil og overføre den til din enhed. Følg den detaljerede vejledning i Hjælp for at overføre filerne til understøttede e-læsere.
