Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation: Theory and Experiments
sij 2007. · Technical report (Rand Corporation) Knjiga 392 · Rand Corporation
E-knjiga
58
str.
reportOcjene i recenzije nisu potvrđene Saznajte više
O ovoj e-knjizi
This report extends research on using scenarios for strategic planning, with experiments in what can be called massive scenario generation (MSG), a computationally intensive technique that seeks to combine virtues of human- and model-based exploration of "the possibility space." The authors measure particular approaches to MSG against four metrics: not needing a good initial model; the dimensionality of the possibility space considered; the degree of exploration of that space; and the quality of resulting knowledge. The authors then describe two MSG experiments for contrasting cases, one that began with a reasonable but untested analytical model, and one that began without an analytical model, but with a thoughtful list of the conditions that might characterize and distinguish among circumstances in the situation considered, a list derived from a combination of single-analyst thinking and group brainstorming. The authors experimented with a variety of methods and tools for interpreting and making sense of the "data" arising from MSG, using ordinary linear sensitivity analysis, a generalization using analyst-inspired aggregation fragments, some advanced filtering methods drawing on data-mining and machine-learning methods, and motivated metamodeling. On the basis of this preliminary work, we conclude that MSG has the potential to expand the scope of what are recognized as possible developments, provide an understanding of how those developments might come about, and help identify aspects of the world that should be studied more carefully, tested, or monitored. It should assist planners by enriching their mental library of the patterns used to guide reasoning and action at the time of crisis or decision and should help them identify anomalous situations requiring unusual actions. Finally, it should identify crucial issues worthy of testing or experimentation in games or other venues and, in some cases, suggest better ways to design mission rehearsals. If MSG can be built into training, education, research, and socialization exercises, it should leave participants with a wider and better sense of the possible, while developing skill at problem-solving in situations other than those of the "best estimate." Much development is needed, but prospects are encouraging.
Ocijenite ovu e-knjigu
Recite nam što mislite.
Informacije o čitanju
Pametni telefoni i tableti
Instalirajte aplikaciju Google Play knjige za Android i iPad/iPhone. Automatski se sinkronizira s vašim računom i omogućuje vam da čitate online ili offline gdje god bili.
Prijenosna i stolna računala
Audioknjige kupljene na Google Playu možete slušati pomoću web-preglednika na računalu.
Elektronički čitači i ostali uređaji
Za čitanje na uređajima s elektroničkom tintom, kao što su Kobo e-čitači, trebate preuzeti datoteku i prenijeti je na svoj uređaj. Slijedite detaljne upute u centru za pomoć za prijenos datoteka na podržane e-čitače.
