Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rate Dynamics
dec. de 2012 · Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems Libro 303 · Springer Science & Business Media
Libro electrónico
143
Páxinas
reportAs valoracións e as recensións non están verificadas Máis información
Acerca deste libro electrónico
Structural exchange rate modeling has proven extremely difficult during the recent post-1973 float. The disappointment climaxed with the papers of Meese and Rogoff (1983a, 1983b), who showed that a "naive" random walk model distinctly dominated received theoretical models in terms of predictive performance for the major dollar spot rates. One purpose of this monograph is to seek the reasons for this failure by exploring the temporal behavior of seven major dollar exchange rates using nonstructural time-series methods. The Meese-Rogoff finding does not mean that exchange rates evolve as random walks; rather it simply means that the random walk is a better stochastic approximation than any of their other candidate models. In this monograph, we use optimal model specification techniques, including formal unit root tests which allow for trend, and find that all of the exchange rates studied do in fact evolve as random walks or random walks with drift (to a very close approximation). This result is consistent with efficient asset markets, and provides an explanation for the Meese-Rogoff results. Far more subtle forces are at work, however, which lead to interesting econometric problems and have implications for the measurement of exchange rate volatility and moment structure. It is shown that all exchange rates display substantial conditional heteroskedasticity. A particularly reasonable parameterization of this conditional heteroskedasticity, which captures the observed clustering of prediction error variances, is developed in Chapter 2.
Valora este libro electrónico
Dános a túa opinión.
Información de lectura
Smartphones e tabletas
Instala a aplicación Google Play Libros para Android e iPad/iPhone. Sincronízase automaticamente coa túa conta e permíteche ler contido en liña ou sen conexión desde calquera lugar.
Portátiles e ordenadores de escritorio
Podes escoitar os audiolibros comprados en Google Play a través do navegador web do ordenador.
Lectores de libros electrónicos e outros dispositivos
Para ler contido en dispositivos de tinta electrónica, como os lectores de libros electrónicos Kobo, é necesario descargar un ficheiro e transferilo ao dispositivo. Sigue as instrucións detalladas do Centro de Axuda para transferir ficheiros a lectores electrónicos admitidos.
